NFL 2020: Week 1 Predictions and Results

2020-09-18

Overview

Through a model I built that can be found in another post, I simulated each of the Week 1 2020 games for the NFL season 10,000 times. Going forward I would like to keep a log of my results. The chart below summarizes the results.

The Results

Quickly to overview what's here:

  1. The name of each home and away team.
  2. The probability the home team, or away team wins
  3. The moneyline odds offered at Fanduel (or at least what I found in this article).
  4. The result of the prediction (here I am assuming a bet on the team if they had a > 50% chance of winning)
  5. The total payout of a theoretical $100 wager

In total, my predictions were correct 68% of the time and resulted in a whopping net profit of $91. This is a very naive approach to betting, but I kind of wanted to see the reuslt either way. Going forward I would like to try to measure my edge against bookmaker odds, and be more thoughtful with the theoretical betting approach.

Anyway - here's the summary:

Home Team Away Team Home Win Probability Away Win Probability Money Line Odds Correct Prediction? Total Payout with $100 Stake
KC HOU 0.8366 0.1634 -420 1 119.231
WAS PHI 0.0408 0.9592 -300 0 0
NE MIA 0.9947 0.0053 -310 1 124.39
MIN GB 0.5817 0.4183 -186 0 0
JAX IND 0.2381 0.7619 -300 0 0
DET CHI 0.3894 0.6106 122 1 222
CAR OAK 0.5117 0.4883 120 0 0
BUF NYJ 0.815 0.185 -260 1 127.778
BAL CLE 0.9661 0.0339 -420 1 119.231
ATL SEA 0.2545 0.7455 -120 1 145.455
CIN LAC 0.1853 0.8147 -184 1 135.211
SF ARI 0.9879 0.0121 -440 0 0
NO TB 0.6376 0.3624 -240 1 129.412
LA DAL 0.5308 0.4692 114 1 214
NYG PIT 0.2356 0.7644 -194 1 134.014
DEN TEN 0.233 0.767 120 1 220

Created by John Camardo © 2020