2020-08-18
On a weekly basis, I will be generating win probabilities for select NFL games, as well as over under probabilities.
The modeling technique that I've used is great for generating probabilities that teams will win, and probabilities.
For example, checking the probability that Kansas City beats Houston is 82.3%.
In addition we can look at the joint probability that the two teams score more than the current spread O/U which is 54.5. The probabilty that the total number of points is less than 54.5 is 74.9%.
The probability that Minnesota beats Green Bay at home in the season opener is 54.6%.
The joint probability that the two teams score more than the current O/U which is 46.5 ends up at 81%