2021-03-17
| Home Team | Away Team | Home Seed | Away Seed | Home Win Probability | Away Win Probability | Home Point Projection | Away Points Projection | Spread | Total Point Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wichita-state | drake | 11 | 11 | 0.4028 | 0.5972 | 71.6 | 74 | -2.4 | 145.5 |
| michigan-state | ucla | 11 | 11 | 0.2764 | 0.7236 | 65.4 | 71.9 | -6.6 | 137.3 |
| norfolk-state | appalachian-state | 16 | 16 | 0.5329 | 0.4671 | 69.5 | 68 | 1.5 | 137.5 |
| mount-st-marys | texas-southern | 16 | 16 | 0.5605 | 0.4395 | 65.2 | 62.9 | 2.3 | 128.2 |
| illinois | drexel | 1 | 16 | 0.8007 | 0.1993 | 76.6 | 65.4 | 11.2 | 141.9 |
| baylor | hartford | 1 | 16 | 0.9231 | 0.0769 | 78.2 | 60.4 | 17.8 | 138.5 |
| houston | cleveland-state | 2 | 15 | 0.9178 | 0.0822 | 74.7 | 57.3 | 17.4 | 132 |
| ohio-state | oral-roberts | 2 | 15 | 0.8252 | 0.1748 | 86.3 | 73.6 | 12.7 | 159.9 |
| arkansas | colgate | 3 | 14 | 0.5234 | 0.4766 | 79.3 | 77.9 | 1.4 | 157.2 |
| west-virginia | morehead-state | 3 | 14 | 0.723 | 0.277 | 73.8 | 66 | 7.8 | 139.8 |
| oklahoma-state | liberty | 4 | 13 | 0.5637 | 0.4363 | 71.7 | 69.2 | 2.5 | 140.9 |
| purdue | north-texas | 4 | 13 | 0.4533 | 0.5467 | 62.1 | 63 | -0.9 | 125.1 |
| tennessee | oregon-state | 5 | 12 | 0.7801 | 0.2199 | 70.1 | 60.5 | 9.6 | 130.6 |
| villanova | winthrop | 5 | 12 | 0.6144 | 0.3856 | 77.7 | 73.4 | 4.2 | 151.1 |
| san-diego-state | syracuse | 6 | 11 | 0.6699 | 0.3301 | 73.1 | 67.1 | 6 | 140.1 |
| texas-tech | utah-state | 6 | 11 | 0.4176 | 0.5824 | 65.8 | 67.8 | -1.9 | 133.6 |
| clemson | rutgers | 7 | 10 | 0.4914 | 0.5086 | 62.7 | 62.2 | 0.5 | 124.9 |
| florida | virginia-tech | 7 | 10 | 0.5866 | 0.4134 | 70.5 | 67.1 | 3.4 | 137.6 |
| loyola-il | georgia-tech | 8 | 9 | 0.6039 | 0.3961 | 66.4 | 62.7 | 3.6 | 129.1 |
| north-carolina | wisconsin | 8 | 9 | 0.4058 | 0.5942 | 67 | 69.4 | -2.4 | 136.3 |
| iowa | grand-canyon | 2 | 15 | 0.8132 | 0.1868 | 78.2 | 66.2 | 12 | 144.4 |
| alabama | iona | 2 | 15 | 0.874 | 0.126 | 83 | 67.6 | 15.5 | 150.6 |
| texas | abilene-christian | 3 | 14 | 0.5359 | 0.4641 | 71.3 | 69.6 | 1.7 | 140.9 |
| kansas | eastern-washington | 3 | 14 | 0.7103 | 0.2897 | 78.3 | 70.7 | 7.5 | 149 |
| florida-state | north-carolina-greensboro | 4 | 13 | 0.7025 | 0.2975 | 76.9 | 69.6 | 7.3 | 146.5 |
| virginia | ohio | 4 | 13 | 0.668 | 0.332 | 70.3 | 64.5 | 5.8 | 134.8 |
| creighton | california-santa-barbara | 5 | 12 | 0.5839 | 0.4161 | 72 | 68.9 | 3.1 | 140.9 |
| colorado | georgetown | 5 | 12 | 0.7707 | 0.2293 | 74.6 | 64.9 | 9.7 | 139.6 |
| connecticut | maryland | 7 | 10 | 0.5337 | 0.4663 | 65.1 | 63.4 | 1.7 | 128.5 |
| oregon | virginia-commonwealth | 7 | 10 | 0.5183 | 0.4817 | 68.6 | 67.5 | 1.1 | 136.1 |
| oklahoma | missouri | 8 | 9 | 0.5405 | 0.4595 | 73.9 | 72 | 1.9 | 146 |
| louisiana-state | st-bonaventure | 8 | 9 | 0.5022 | 0.4978 | 72.9 | 72.5 | 0.5 | 145.4 |