2020-05-19
Golden Gate Fields is a track located in Northern California. It is one of the few tracks in the United States with an All Weather Track similar to some of the “Dirt” racing that is run outside of the United States. As you can note from the chart below - the races are predominantly run on the AWT surface, and notably, prior to racing being paused on 29 March 2020, there were no turf races run in 2020.
| Year | Surface | Two Turns? | Count of Races |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | All Weather Track | 0 | 697 |
| 1 | 447 | ||
| Turf | 0 | 52 | |
| 1 | 165 | ||
| 2020 | All Weather Track | 0 | 221 |
| 1 | 171 |
With the tote being the primary way to wager in the United States, it might be informative to understand where to search for longer (or shorter) priced horses to bet. Put another way, what types of races does the “public” generally understand, and which types of races does the “public” generally fail to identify the winner en masse.
Somewhat surprisingly, Allowance races appear to be those that the public tends to be the worst judges of form, in both 2019 and continuing through 2020. Unsurprisingly, Maiden Special Weight races also appear toward the higher end of this chart (with respect to odds), presumably because there is sometimes less information about these horses’ form publicly available.
In terms of number of mounts, William Antongeorgi III and Juan Hernandez are the top jockeys since 2019. Hernandez wins at a much higher rate than Antongeorgi III, however both have relatively low ROIs, so nothing very intriguing here. What is interesting in inspecting this list are a few of the jockeys at the top and bottom of this list. In particular some that win much more than their odds suggest, and some that win much less than their odds suggest. Juan Hernandez (mentioned above) wins at almost 27% where his odds suggest he should only win 23% of the time, which I believe to be significant over 1000+ races.
Most people, if you asked the question, “who is the top trainer at Golden Gate” would respond with the answer Jonathan Wong. There isn’t any arguing that he is a great trainer, but, from a gambling perspective, is definitely not someone you’d want to blindly bet. From a return on investment perspective, betting Jonathan Wong’s mounts blindly, over the 732 times when there was an opportunity to do so would’ve resulted in you losing 46 cents for every unit. What’s more interesting though is that his impact value (expected win percentage derived from betting odds divided by actual win percentage) is positive even if only slightly. All of this suggests that his horses win, and they win a lot, but he doesn’t deliver with longer priced horses (or the public bets him too heavily) and is one that I might shy away from betting to win unless you’re getting a good (fixed) price.
Scanning through the rest of the list, there is not a ton more to offer. Ellen Jackson, in the second row appears to have her runners consistently underbet based purely on impact value and ROI and it might be good to give her runners an extra look.
Given most horses that race starting on Thursday at Golden Gate will have been away from racing for at least 6 weeks - I thought it might be informative to see who the top trainers are at coming back from 6-8 weeks away from racing. Unsurprisingly Jonathan Wong makes this list. At the top however, (and keep in mind there are very small samples) is Efrain Miranda who has won almost 40% of the time with horses that have been away for between 6 and 8 weeks with a very positive ROI. In fact, half of these trainers boast positive returns on investment.