NFL 2019 Offense, Defense and Home Field Advantage Quantification
2020-08-16
Motivation
Football season is around the corner.
Problem
Need to figure out a way to simulate two offense and defenses playing against one another in order to generate win probabilities for each week of the football season as well as generate inputs to models that will predict fantasy output.
Solution
Use bayesian inference to "learn" what the offensive strength, defensive strength, and home field advantage strength of each team is by observing points scored and points given up in each game in the 2019 football season.
Analysis
Offensive Ratings
Higher is better:
| Team | 2019 Offense Strength |
|---|---|
| PIT | -0.398749 |
| CIN | -0.349235 |
| WAS | -0.290494 |
| CHI | -0.269672 |
| DET | -0.172308 |
| JAX | -0.16727 |
| NYJ | -0.145551 |
| DEN | -0.13059 |
| MIA | -0.121641 |
| ARI | -0.0970564 |
| TEN | -0.0867302 |
| OAK | -0.0745028 |
| HOU | -0.0335459 |
| CAR | -0.0131171 |
| SEA | -0.00165776 |
| SF | 0.00687134 |
| GB | 0.0166434 |
| DAL | 0.0217995 |
| IND | 0.0553996 |
| BUF | 0.0565444 |
| LAC | 0.0738509 |
| CLE | 0.0913907 |
| NE | 0.102397 |
| NYG | 0.118726 |
| PHI | 0.132973 |
| ATL | 0.136901 |
| LA | 0.169357 |
| MIN | 0.172288 |
| TB | 0.218471 |
| KC | 0.257075 |
| NO | 0.327525 |
| BAL | 0.393909 |
Defensive Ratings
Lower is better:
| Team | 2019 Defense Strength |
|---|---|
| NE | -0.295617 |
| PIT | -0.238564 |
| BUF | -0.237243 |
| KC | -0.236227 |
| DAL | -0.206887 |
| SF | -0.205498 |
| CHI | -0.19759 |
| BAL | -0.129511 |
| DEN | -0.125276 |
| MIN | -0.0985879 |
| LA | -0.0728625 |
| GB | -0.0580451 |
| SEA | -0.054015 |
| LAC | -0.0427902 |
| NO | -0.0361248 |
| TEN | -0.0341419 |
| ATL | 0.0260207 |
| JAX | 0.0578417 |
| PHI | 0.0703373 |
| HOU | 0.0765529 |
| CIN | 0.100073 |
| NYJ | 0.102112 |
| TB | 0.127117 |
| IND | 0.127835 |
| CAR | 0.135913 |
| CLE | 0.139226 |
| DET | 0.164708 |
| ARI | 0.187712 |
| OAK | 0.191956 |
| NYG | 0.24745 |
| WAS | 0.251086 |
| MIA | 0.263042 |
Home Field Advantage
Higher is better:
| Team | 2019 Home Field Advantage |
|---|---|
| PHI | -0.267382 |
| NYG | -0.264639 |
| BUF | -0.261282 |
| LA | -0.236992 |
| CLE | -0.222285 |
| TB | -0.215042 |
| ATL | -0.213495 |
| LAC | -0.202458 |
| BAL | -0.176526 |
| JAX | -0.14217 |
| CAR | -0.117976 |
| NO | -0.0981682 |
| MIN | -0.0801397 |
| KC | -0.0749629 |
| IND | -0.0619836 |
| CHI | -0.00138546 |
| HOU | 0.00462736 |
| NE | 0.00940578 |
| MIA | 0.013537 |
| OAK | 0.0281659 |
| DEN | 0.05847 |
| ARI | 0.0588607 |
| GB | 0.0733125 |
| NYJ | 0.0778562 |
| SEA | 0.0803561 |
| WAS | 0.220843 |
| DET | 0.246878 |
| TEN | 0.2475 |
| DAL | 0.274282 |
| CIN | 0.327502 |
| PIT | 0.33526 |
| SF | 0.468936 |